Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 77957.924804 82353.482512 86752.823604 91483.197582 96422.496940 101424.618586 106870.129038
2025-12-14 70368.030598 77032.369642 83892.936310 91473.746298 99605.913095 108057.905479 117496.676728
2025-12-21 65142.209995 73357.067765 82003.766884 91763.823005 102454.170581 113787.304208 126690.050569
2025-12-28 61920.743786 71386.800319 81535.133240 93191.810520 106177.563519 120165.717831 136338.734752
2026-01-04 59075.378503 69529.322345 80918.603479 94200.817115 109215.460220 125612.241948 144821.041872
2026-01-11 56453.162131 67703.009821 80139.281091 94841.889707 111680.853961 130295.058782 152356.361294
2026-01-18 53872.097472 65748.956347 79057.282318 94990.531408 113459.289780 134103.298153 158829.963776
2026-01-25 51630.948244 64053.268945 78149.385140 95224.097376 115236.044636 137834.115639 165163.350576
2026-02-01 49432.108505 62290.803841 77058.204966 95144.982155 116565.099352 140985.583681 170785.725307
2026-02-08 47886.755723 61223.773262 76711.340531 95874.177945 118786.259248 145136.344492 177555.097735
2026-02-15 46063.819496 59738.021098 75790.841654 95851.395033 120060.351906 148137.838587 182955.327352
2026-02-22 45089.102533 59236.632140 76009.881761 97159.728287 122897.155294 152974.004323 190534.507077
2026-03-01 43906.840042 58446.922113 75858.688821 98013.219448 125200.143339 157212.237816 197471.418796
2026-03-08 42379.070547 57169.972710 75061.888815 98035.657473 126465.806002 160195.860414 202913.507659
2026-03-15 41091.410458 56146.003672 74533.730527 98349.957307 128058.695088 163558.725272 208815.700935
2026-03-22 40457.131394 55924.916720 74983.487300 99862.794575 131121.142270 168713.213686 216920.893536
2026-03-29 39658.973792 55458.677571 75096.221762 100930.827873 133619.894505 173181.262106 224208.769951
2026-04-05 38731.780756 54789.361047 74920.720483 101609.189791 135615.470239 177027.301607 230746.015468
2026-04-12 37624.889036 53845.907378 74360.049093 101766.470393 136932.553124 180022.816796 236235.716151
2026-04-19 36614.114154 52996.256283 73890.318079 102013.580048 138343.901335 183127.021037 241866.444993
2026-04-26 35514.061592 51992.071414 73187.457494 101929.880340 139310.402074 185661.631788 246785.652008
2026-05-03 34819.376274 51512.746143 73153.476554 102701.313248 141366.222881 189569.651532 253448.021328
2026-05-10 33836.322598 50609.719896 72531.798634 102677.211647 142375.894124 192144.844770 258431.166646